Srinagar, Apr 07: Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif Keng has forecast a strong Western Disturbance to impact Jammu & Kashmir over the next 36 hours, bringing intense weather activity, particularly across the Jammu region.
According to Keng, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in Jammu division, with peak intensity likely from Tuesday late afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. Districts including Poonch, Rajouri, Reasi, Ramban, Samba, Jammu, Udhampur and Kathua are expected to bear the brunt, while Doda and Kishtwar may witness relatively moderate impact.
He cautioned that heavy rain spells could trigger flash floods in vulnerable areas and lead to a sharp rise in water levels of rivers and streams. A significant drop in temperatures is also expected during this period, with snowfall likely in higher reaches above 2500–2700 metres.
In the Kashmir region, the impact is expected to be comparatively moderate but significant in areas close to the Pir Panjal range. Moderate to heavy rain and snowfall are likely along routes such as Mughal Road, Sinthan Pass and Margan Top, while most other areas may receive intermittent showers.
Keng further stated that there is a 10–35 percent chance of snowfall in areas between 2000 and 2400 metres, particularly near the Pir Panjal, with a noticeable dip in daytime temperatures across the Valley on Wednesday.
Issuing an advisory, the forecaster warned of a high risk of landslides and shooting stones along the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway (NH-44) and other vulnerable routes. Travel has been discouraged from Tuesday afternoon till Thursday unless necessary.
Weather conditions are expected to gradually improve from Wednesday late afternoon, with overall stabilization likely by early Thursday morning.
